With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.
1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.
Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:
“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”
2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.
During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).
Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.
Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.
3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.
FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.
Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:
“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”
Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:Today, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.
Bottom Line
This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:
“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”
Last week, Fannie Mae released their Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). Though the survey showed 77% of respondents believe it’s a “good time to sell,” it also confirms what many are sensing: an increasing number of Americans believe it’s a “bad time to buy” a home. The percentage of those surveyed saying it’s a “bad time to buy” hit 64%, up from 56% last month and 38% last July.
The latest HPSI explains:
“Consumers also continued to cite high home prices as the predominant reason for their ongoing and significant divergence in sentiment toward homebuying and home-selling conditions.While all surveyed segments have expressed greater negativity toward homebuying over the last few months, renters who say they are planning to buy a home in the next few years have demonstrated an even steeper decline in homebuying sentiment than homeowners. It’s likely that affordability concerns are more greatly affecting those who aspire to be first-time homeowners than other consumer segments.”
Let’s look closely at the market conditions that impact home affordability.
A mortgage payment is determined by the price of the home and the mortgage rate on the loan used to purchase it. Lately, monthly mortgage payments have gone up for buyers for two key reasons:
Mortgage rates have increased from 2.65% this past January to 2.9%.
Home prices have increased by 15.4% over the last 12 months.
Based on these rising factors, a home may be less affordable today, but it doesn’t mean it’s not affordable.
Three weeks ago, ATTOM Data released their second-quarter 2021 U.S. Home Affordability Report which explained that the major ownership costs on the typical home as a percent of the average national wage had increased from 22.2% in the second quarter of 2020 to 25.2% in the second quarter of this year. They also went on to explain:
“Still, the latest level is within the 28 percent standard lenders prefer for how much homeowners should spend on mortgage payments, home insurance and property taxes.”
In the same report, Todd Teta, Chief Product Officer with ATTOM, confirms:
“Average workers across the country can still manage the major expenses of owning a home, based on lender standards.”
It’s true that monthly mortgage payments are greater than they were last year (as the ATTOM data shows), but they’re not unaffordable when compared to the last 30 years. While payments have increased dramatically during that several-decade span, if we adjust for inflation, today’s mortgage payments are 10.7% lower than they were in 1990.
What’s that mean for you? While you may not get the homebuying deal someone you know got last year, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t still buy a home. Here are your alternatives to buying and the trade-offs you’ll have with each.
Alternative 1: I’ll rent instead.
Some may consider renting as the better option. However, the monthly cost of renting a home is skyrocketing. According to the July National Rent Report from Apartment List:
“…So far in 2021, rental prices have grown a staggering 9.2%. To put that in context, in previous years growth from January to June is usually just 2 to 3%. After this month’s spike, rents have been pushed well above our expectations of where they would have been had the pandemic not disrupted the market.”
If you continue to rent, chances are your rent will keep increasing at a fast pace. That means you could end up spending significantly more of your income on your rental as time goes on, which could make it even harder to save for a home.
Alternative 2: I’ll wait it out.
Others may consider waiting for another year and hoping that purchasing a home will be less expensive then. Let’s look at that possibility.
We’ve already established that a monthly mortgage payment is determined by the price of the home and the mortgage rate. A lower monthly payment would require one of those two elements to decrease over the next year. However, experts are forecasting the exact opposite:
The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES), a survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts, calls for home prices to increase by 5.12% in 2022.
Based on these projections, let’s see the possible impact on a monthly mortgage payment:By waiting until next year, you’d potentially pay more for the home, need a larger down payment, pay a higher mortgage rate, and pay an additional $3,696 each year over the life of the mortgage.
Bottom Line
While you may have missed the absolute best time to buy a home, waiting any longer may not make sense. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says it best:
“Affordability is likely to worsen before it improves, so try to buy it now, if you can find it.”
Idaho is full of beautiful cities that have so much to offer to its residents. With so many to choose from it can be difficult to find the one that suits you and your family’s needs the best. If you’re looking to make a move then let’s take a look at some of the best places to live in the great state of Idaho.
Boise has so many gorgeous places to live in and the community of West Bench is easily one of the best. With its picturesque homes and its cozy atmosphere, you’ll feel like you’re right at home in this beautiful neighborhood. If you’re thinking of making a move, here’s a few reasons why you should consider West Bench first.
In today’s real estate market, mortgage interest rates are near record lows. If you’ve been in your current home for several years and haven’t refinanced lately, there’s a good chance you have a mortgage with an interest rate higher than today’s average. Here are some options you should consider if you want to take advantage of today’s current low rates before they rise.
Sell and Move Up (or Downsize)
Many of today’s homeowners are rethinking what they need in a home and redefining what their dream home means. For some, continued remote work is bringing about the need for additional space. For others, moving to a lower cost-of-living area or downsizing may be great options. If you’re considering either of these, there may not be a better time to move. Here’s why.
The chart below shows average mortgage rates by decade compared to where they are today:Today’s rates are below 3%, but experts forecast rates to rise over the next few years.
If the interest rate on your current mortgage is higher than today’s average, take advantage of this opportunity by making a move and securing a lower rate. Lower rates mean you may be able to get more house for your money and still have a lower monthly mortgage payment than you might expect.
Waiting, however, might mean you miss out on this historic opportunity. Below is a chart showing how your monthly payment will change if you buy a home as mortgage rates increase:
Breaking It All Down:
Using the chart above, let’s look at the breakdown of a $300,000 mortgage:
When mortgage rates rise, so does the monthly payment you can secure.
Even the smallest increase in rates can make a difference in your monthly mortgage payment.
As interest rates rise, you’ll need to look at a lower-priced home to try and keep the same target monthly payment, meaning you may end up with less home for your money.
No matter what, whether you’re looking to make a move up or downsize to a home that better suits your needs, now is the time. Even a small change in interest rates can have a big impact on your purchasing power.
Refinance
If making a move right now still doesn’t feel right for you, consider refinancing. With the current low mortgage rates, refinancing is a great option if you’re looking to lower your monthly payments and stay in your current home.
Bottom Line
Take advantage of today’s low rates before they begin to rise. Whether you’re thinking about moving up, downsizing, or refinancing, let’s connect today to discuss which option is best for you.
In recent years, Idaho’s rise to fame as The Potato State has seen a major shift to The Most Desired State In America! Is Idaho really that good of a place to live? In short: yes. There are many reasons why individuals and families are flocking to the Gem State and below are a few reasons Idaho’s largest city, Boise, is attracting many to uproot and plant new roots in the City of Trees.
CRIME IS EXTREMELY LOW IN BOISE Idaho’s crime rates are far below the national average. 74% of Idahoans feel safe in their state compared to 55% nationally. Concern over safety in Idaho has dropped consistently year over year. Idaho’s safest city, Weiser, reported zero violent crimes in the last twelve months and of the approximate 200 cities in Idaho, Boise ranked 16th safest in the state!
IDAHO IS THE LEAST REGULATED STATE IN THE U.S. In 2019 Idaho cut and simplified 75% of its rules in one year, becoming the least-regulated state in the entire country! What does that mean? More freedom. Governor Brad Little said, “When we reduce the friction on entrepreneurs and businesses, good-paying jobs follow.” More recently, the “Lemonade Stand Freedom” bill passed in 2021, sponsored by Rep. Ron Nate, exempted small youth-run businesses from state sales tax and prohibited local governments from requiring licenses, permits or fees for such operations. “Cities shouldn’t require licenses or permits for youth businesses like lemonade stands or mowing lawns,” Nate said. “We want to encourage young entrepreneurs to dip their toes into the business area. We don’t want to put roadblocks in their way.”
BOISE HAS A THRIVING ECONOMY & VERY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT The International Business Times declared that Idaho has the best economy in America. Since 2016, Idaho’s population has grown at one of the fastest rates in the U.S. The population of Idaho is 1.86 million with over 169,000 small businesses, making up 99.2% of overall businesses in the entire state. Unemployment in Idaho is extremely low and ranks among the best! The U.S. unemployment rate as of August 2021 was 5.2% while Idaho was 2.9% and ranks Top 3 in the nation. California (7.5%) and Nevada (7.7%) rank worst with the highest unemployment rates in the U.S.
THERE IS A LOT TO DO INDOORS & OUTDOORS Boise is filled with activities, making it one of the best cities to raise a family in the U.S. From the Boise Zoo, Idaho State Historical Museum, Discovery Center, Idaho Botanical Garden and Roaring Springs Water Park, the entire family has plenty to do and will never be bored — unless they try really hard to be! With only 2.59 people per square mile, the City of Trees has tons of green space available for its residents to enjoy. The Boise River Greenbelt, Julia Davis Park, Ann Morrison Park, The Military Reserve, Bogus Basin and more, are among the many outdoor Gems to enjoy all throughout the Treasure Valley.
BOISE’S ACTIVE LIFESTYLE Boise’s beautiful and mild weather allows residents to experience outdoor recreation all year round! Hiking, mountain biking, and trail running are popular activities. A hike paired with breathtaking views on Camel’s Back Trail Loop, Bogus Basin Mountain Recreation Area & Ski Resort for winter slopes, and the Boise River for easy access to kayaking, floating, fishing, and paddle boarding are just a few active options available within close proximity!
IDAHO IS PRO HOMESCHOOL
Idaho is ranked one of the top homeschool-friendly states in America according to the Home School Legal Defense Association (HSLDA). In 2015, the “Parental Rights Statute” was passed protecting parent’s rights to the direct care of their children. Since Idaho views homeschooling as an acceptable means for education, parents’ documents are considered legal as any other school in the state. Idaho allows vaccine exemptions for a broader range of reasons than most states, with categories for medical, religious and personal exemptions.
IDAHO IS PRO 2ND AMENDMENT Of all 50 states, Idaho is tied with Arizona for the most gun-friendly state in the country. In 2016, Idaho passed the “Constitutional Carry” law, which allows open and concealed carry of guns without having to prove training by a permit. Any resident of Idaho, who is 18 years or older can purchase shotguns, handguns, and rifles without a permit, as long as they are not federally restricted from having firearms.
BOISE HAS A DYNAMIC DOWNTOWN Boise's safety, affordability, tech and creative scene attracts families and individuals alike. The growing coffee culture, restaurants, entertainment and music scene draws many that enjoy a downtown lifestyle with a charming small-town feel.
For these reasons and more, it’s easy to see why Boise is no longer the hidden Gem it once was. The secret is out: Boise is not only a good place to live, but a great place to thrive! Not bad for a potato state.
What was once a barren desert, Boise Bench has transformed from essentially nothing to a desirable and thriving community. The area started as a network of dairies, orchards, homesteads, and farms is now a trendy suburb.
Over 5,500 residents call Boise Bench home, and there are plenty of reasons why people love it there. A rich mix of history, amenities, home types, affordable living, and high quality of life are some, to name a few.
With proximity to downtown Boise, residents of Boise Bench have access to plenty of amenities within minutes. Regardless of your lifestyle and hobbies, you’ll find something to love in Boise Bench.
Boise is one of the most exciting places to live in the Pacific Northwest. It’s an extremely dynamic and vibrant city to call home in the state of Idaho. The lifestyle that comes along with choosing Boise as your next home won’t disappoint. Between the incredible natural beauty, recreation, and real estate, many people opt to relocate to the area. Particularly in the community of Northend, there’s so much to enjoy.
Today’s housing market is full of unprecedented opportunities. High buyer demand paired with record-low housing inventory is creating the ultimate sellers’ market, which means it’s a fantastic time to sell your house. However, that doesn’t mean sellers are guaranteed success no matter what. There are still some key things to know so you can avoid costly mistakes and win big when you make a move.
1. Price Your House Right
When inventory is low, like it is in the current market, it’s common to think buyers will pay whatever we ask when setting a listing price. Believe it or not, that’s not always true. Even in a sellers’ market, listing your house for the right price will maximize the number of buyers that see your house. This creates the best environment for bidding wars, which in turn are more likely to increase the final sale price. A real estate professional is the best person to help you set the best price for your house so you can achieve your financial goals.
2. Keep Your Emotions in Check
Today, homeowners are living in their houses for a longer period of time. Since 1985, the average time a homeowner owned their home, or their tenure, has increased from 5 to 10 years (See graph below):This is several years longer than what used to be the historical norm. The side effect, however, is when you stay in one place for so long, you may get even more emotionally attached to your space. If it’s the first home you purchased or the house where your children grew up, it very likely means something extra special to you. Every room has memories, and it’s hard to detach from that sentimental value.
For some homeowners, that connection makes it even harder to separate the emotional value of the house from the fair market price. That’s why you need a real estate professional to help you with the negotiations along the way.
3. Stage Your House Properly
We’re generally quite proud of our décor and how we’ve customized our houses to make them our own unique homes. However, not all buyers will feel the same way about your design and personal touches. That’s why it’s so important to make sure you stage your house with the buyer in mind.
Buyers want to envision themselves in the space so it truly feels like it could be their own. As Darren Robertson, an Alexandria, Virginia Realtor, says, "They need to see themselves inside with their furniture and keepsakes – not your pictures and decorations. Stage, clean, and declutter so they can visualize their own dreams as they walk through each room." A real estate professional can help you with tips to get your home ready to stage and sell.
Bottom Line
Today’s sellers’ market might be your best chance to make a move. If you’re considering selling your house, let’s connect today so you have the expert guidance you need to navigate through the process and prioritize these key elements.
Southeast Boise is one of the fastest-growing communities in Boise, Idaho. It is conveniently located to provide residents access to the river, greenbelt, and downtown core, which is a massive draw for those looking to relocate to the area. It has seen growth in recent years and has continued to flourish as more people discover all it has to offer. The community is home to plenty of Boise landmarks and has a lot to offer for various lifestyles. Whether you’re part of a young family, a post-secondary student, or on the verge of retirement, Southeast Boise has something to offer you.
Here are ten reasons to live in Southeast Boise.
1. The Outdoor Activities
Outdoor enthusiasts will love Southeast Boise. There is so much natural beauty to explore and admire. Along the river, there are miles of greenbelt to enjoy, shady parks, and much more. This particular area is known as an outdoor playground because there’s always something to do. The Simplot Sports Complex is minutes away, and it offers space for a variety of sports, play, and recreation. The well-known Barber Park calls the community home. It’s a beautiful waterfront park where residents can go floating down the river during the summer heat. If floating isn’t your favorite, you can take the 10-minute drive and head to Lucky Peak. It’s the local lake and offers sandy beaches for residents to soak up the sun.
2. The Food Scene
Residents rave about some of the best restaurants that are local to Southeast Boise. Some favorites include:
Egg Mann and Earl: If you’re looking for a great breakfast spot, this new addition to the community has already become a local fave. It’s an eclectic spot that millennials rave about.
The Griddle: If you’re looking for a classic breakfast, this is your place. They are famous for their pancakes.
Locavore: The best patio in the area, this spot sells excellent breakfast and coffee for mornings and deliciously crafted dinners in the evening.
Zero Six Coffee Fix: Owned by the same people as Egg Mann and Earl, this coffee shop is the perfect place to grab a drink or open your laptop and get some work done.
Tavern at Bown Crossing: Want the best burger in town? This is the place to get it.
Addie’s: Grab an all-American breakfast or lunch at this Southeast Boise Staple - serving great food since 2001.
Tastings Wine Bar: The premier wine market and tasting bar in the area.
Bier:Thirty: One of the best bars for beer, residents love this spot.
3. The Commute to Work
If you read reviews for living in Southeast Boise, one common trend you’ll see is the short commute times. Albertsons and Micron are two of the biggest employers in the city, and their headquarters are situated in the community. Almost ⅙ of the workforce calls Southeast Boise home. Commutes are typically less than 10 minutes to get to work. Most residents are located conveniently to get to the highway. If you like to bike to work, you can hop on the greenbelt to downtown. It’s a walkable city, but there’s also ridesharing if needed.
4. The Attractions
There are plenty of attractions to check out in Southeast Boise, and many of them involve being active. Go for a skate, play some hockey at the indoor dual ice rink at Idaho Ice World, or visit the Simplot Sports Complex for soccer or softball. Suppose you feel like getting out of the community for a bit. In that case, you can visit any of the incredible art galleries in Boise, the Idaho State Capitol Building, the Idaho Botanical Gardens, and so much more right in your backyard.
5. The Lifestyle
In Southeast Boise, it’s really the best of all worlds. No matter what you’re interested in, there’s a community of people who share your interests. If you’re a big foodie, the food scene is incredible, as mentioned above. You can go shopping and grab a drink on a patio to quench your thirst. If you love to be outside, you can go for a run along the greenbelt while admiring the natural beauty. It’s a great place to raise a family with quiet communities and exceptional schools. The overall lifestyle is very laid back, so whatever you’re into, you will find it here.
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6. The Education
For school-aged children, Southwest Boise ranks an A- overall for education on Niche.com. There are 19 public schools in the community, and they are all highly regarded institutions. The Boise Senior High School is actually the number one high school in all of Idaho. There are charter and private school options available as well.
Post-secondary students don’t need to go far as Southeast Boise is home to Boise State University. You can be confident your kids are getting the best education available in Idaho, from kindergarten to post-secondary.
7. The Atmosphere
The vibe in Southeast Boise is described as casual comfort. It maintains an old-fashioned atmosphere, but with modern amenities like local businesses, shopping, and excellent restaurants nestled within a great location. Overall, the demographic is on the younger side, but it’s very family-friendly and a great place to work and play.
Residents love the suburban feeling while being so close to all the downtown action. Southeast Boise is a true gem, and it’s no wonder why people are excited to relocate there.
8. There’s Something for Everyone
In every aspect, there’s something for every person of all ages in Southeast Boise. You will find something you love in the area, from hobbies, restaurants, and outdoor activities to housing options.
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9. The Neighborhoods
There is a wide variety of home styles and price points among the communities in Southeast Boise. Here are some of the best neighborhoods.
West Southwest
Suppose you chat with any local about where the most sought-after community is in Southeast Boise or where their dream community is. In that case, Lakewood will be among the top answers most of the time. Gekeler Lane, Linden Street, and Bergeson street surround this community, which is a suburban oasis that provides a variety of housing options. You can find almost everything here, including condos and mini-estates. Just south of Bergeson Street, you’ll venture into Promontory Ridge, which is a community made up of incredible homes with modern layouts. These homes were built in the 2000s and still include the HOA perks of a pool and clubhouse.
Southeast Boise New Construction
Just west of Lucky Peak and south of Oregon Trail, there are plenty of new construction homes in the southernmost part of the community. Centered around Columbia Road, these homes began construction in 2010, building in the communities of Sunny Ridge, Painted Ridge, and Bonneville Point.
Boise River Corridor
Spring Meadow, River Run, and Wood Duck Island combine to comprise the Boise River Corridor, which is among the top communities in the area on every list. Just east of Parkcenter Blvd, these three communities are situated. With private tree-lined streets, the bank of the river, and the greenbelt all minutes away, the homes here are highly sought after. You can find properties that range in price from $500,000 to over $1 million.
Columbia Mesa
In the Columbia Mesa area, one of the first planned communities in Idaho is called Columbia Village. It has a great atmosphere and affordable prices, making it extremely popular to this day. Minutes away is Superior Ridge, which is an upscale community that participates in the Columbia Village HOA. Hence, residents get to reap some extra benefits.
10. Boise Real Estate
Homes in Southeast Boise are sure to impress even the pickiest of interested buyers. Much like the overall vibe of the community, there’s something for everyone when it comes to real estate. The market can be described as eclectic, as there are various home styles, subdivisions, and construction dates. Many of the properties were built between the ’70s and the 00s, but there are plenty of new constructions to choose from as well.
The houses in Southeast Boise range in price from $250,000 to $1.5 million for various housing types. You can find condos, townhomes, single-family homes, and luxury homes among the subdivisions that span the community. However, many of the suburbs were designed as single-family home communities. Condos and townhomes are highly sought-after, so they can be subject to a lot of competition when put on the market.
Whether you’re looking for your first family home or a luxury estate home, you will find it in Southeast Boise. Not only are the homes full of character, and there’s something for every budget, but many of the homes offer incredible views of the foothills and the city. The view makes it just that much sweeter to own a home in this wonderful community.
Are you looking for a home in Southeast Boise? Our team of experts is ready to help you land your dream home in this highly sought-after community. We are a full-service brokerage, and our team of specialists will help get you into your dream home as quickly as possible.
The Templeton Real Estate Group, located in Boise Idaho is a highly skilled and knowledgeable team of TOP BOISE REAL ESTATE professionals. As a FULL SERVICE real estate brokerage, our mission is to provide you, our clients with the pinnacle of service, staging and redesign expertise, as well as top notch real estate marketing when buying or selling your Boise Home.
A local Boise, Idaho real estate agent is ready to help you find your dream home!
Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:
Today, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.
